19 May, 2023: Kerala monsoon slightly delayed. Why ? Read to know more.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), there will likely be a minor delay in the monsoon season beginning over Kerala, with it likely to begin around June 4. Kerala typically experiences the onset of the southwest monsoon on June 1 with an average variance of roughly seven days.
In April, the IMD predicted a "normal" monsoon for the months of June through September, however at 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA), it falls short of what the organization considers to be "normal rainfall."
The LPA is the 89 cm of monsoon rain that falls on India on average each year. The formation of an El Nino, a cyclical phenomena of warming in the Central Pacific that is associated with decreased rainfall in the west, northwest, and western regions of Central India six out of ten years, is the main factor anticipated to cause fewer precipitation this year. Since 2019, India has been experiencing heavy monsoon rains as a result of the opposite "La Nina," or a cooling in certain regions.
The timing of the monsoon's arrival over Kerala does not affect the amount of rain it will produce, but it does help farmers get ready for kharif sowing. The IMD forecasts the Kerala-onset using a specific weather model that takes into account variables including the minimum temperatures across northwest India and the highest level of pre-monsoon rainfall (March–May) including some others.
By May 20, certain weather conditions—heavy rains and clouding—over the Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) Islands herald the arrival of the monsoon over Kerala.
The cyclone Mocha, which developed in the Bay of Bengal and made landfall in Myanmar, had an impact on the Aandaman and Nicobar islands' monsoon system's development and was partially to blame for Kerala's anticipated postponed arrival. Cyclones frequently sweep up moisture and obstruct systems that carry rain.
“This year, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed than the normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on 4th June with a model error of ± 4 days,” the IMD said in a statement.
